Saturday, January 19, 2013

Examining NFL Championship Sunday

NFL Championship Sunday features four of the most unique football teams in the NFL. New England Patriots high powered offense faces the legends of NFL defense Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in a 2012 AFC Championship rematch. Clearly the Ravens and Patriots are the cream of the crop in the AFC. Ravens style of defense is "Taylor Made" for postseason success led by HOF to be linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs. Since moving Jim Caldwell from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator the Ravens have become a more balanced on offense scoring over 30pts in two of their last four games. Torrey Smith has become the big play threat Baltimore believed he could become and Anquan Boldin has provided the veteran consistency Ravens needed on the other side of the hash marks. Against the Denver Broncos Torrey Smith looked like Larry Fitzgerald and Joe Flacco passed the football like Kurt Warner. If Baltimore can get that type of impact from the passing game to compliment Ray Rice the Ravens will be flying south for winter and headed to New Orleans. The only question would be what sermon will Ray Lewis preach on Sunday maybe "I can do all things through Christ" would be appropriate.

New England Patriots the model of offensive consistency and NFL postseason attraction is back in the AFC Championship. Tom Brady is undefeated in Foxboro during the postseason and no one questions Bill Belichick even if he is setting up cameras at Ravens practice facilities. Before and after spy gate Patriots continue to be the best franchise since the year 2001. Twelve years of dynasty type consistency builds confidence in any franchise and the ability to adapt has been even better. New England has gone from defensive show stoppers in the early 2000's to offensive juggernauts with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and  Stevan Ridley. Gronkowski is hurt but the Patriots still have enough weapons to keep the Ravens defense busy. All three of the Patriots Super Bowls have come as #1 or #2 seeds and controlling home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Forward to 2012- 2013 and the Patriots once again have full control of the home field category. Tom Brady's 2012-2013 offense has a lot of weapons and the young defense has been steady all season. In the end Patriots defense must stop the Ravens offense and become the "X Factor" that carries the Patriots to another Super Bowl.

Atlanta Falcons are like the great Phoenix bird born out of fire. For years the Falcons had what is considered possibly one of the best offenses in the NFL. Pro Bowl players at every position Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, Roddy White and the young "Matty Ice". We always focused the success of the offense on keeping Matt Ryan cool in the pocket and as the offensive line protection goes so does the Falcons. It was the failure of the offensive line in playoff games that led to playoff failures. Matt Ryan was sacked 28 times this season the worst of his career but the addition of Julio Jones allowed Ryan to have his greatest season as a NFL pro so far throwing 4,719 yards, 32TD's and 99.1 QBR all career highs. Ryan to White is almost as natural as Montana to Rice but can the combo produce a trip to the Super Bowl or orchestrate the take over of New Orleans in a Mardi Gras type festival on Bourbon Street for Falcons fans in New Orleans. Atlanta's "D-Block" defense is one of the best in the NFL overshadowed by the offensive talents the Falcons defense was 5th in scoring points allowed at 18.2 and only allowing more than 29pts twice during the regular season. Sean Weatherspoon is a Pro Bowl caliber player and top notch linebacker in the NFL. Asaunte Samuel, William Moore, Dunta Robinson and Thomas DeCoud monitor one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Falcons have a lot of talent minus the fact their best corner back Brent Grimes has been out all season long.

San Francisco 49ers probably the most feared team in the NFL playoffs is still breathing and ready to bring the heat to Hotlanta. San Francisco's defense is loaded with a list of All Pro and NFC Pro Bowl players Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner. In other words 49ers put fear into the heart of offensive coordinators league wide. What the 49ers poses in defensive talent as a collective group reminds me of the 1985 Chicago Bears. Add a up and coming offense to the mix and San Francisco looks more like a stick of dynamite ready to explode. Colin Kaepernick was beyond good in his first postseason appearance against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional round, he was awesome rushing for 181 yards. Frank Gore provides a steady dose of smash and pound out of the back field and Vernon Davis when actively targeted is one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Michael Crabtree is exploding before the eyes of the 49ers faithful 9rec, 119yds and 2 TD's versus Packers.

Bottom Line: In my seasons prediction article I pin pointed the 49ers and Patriots as the top two NFL teams. Atlanta Falcons was ranked #3 "So Far, So Good" but is the Falcons home field advantage enough to flip #2 with #3?

"When Seahawks came to the Georgia Dome I sat in section 101 and the Dome was ear piercing loud at times"

Betting Line: +8pts for the Ravens is shaky the game could be closer than expected take Patriots in a straight bet. 2011-2012 AFC Championship score was 20-23 Patriots, Sept 23rd 2012 Ravens defeated Patriots 30-31 both games.

Key to Victory: San Francisco's poor Red Zone offense (52.54%) versus Atlanta's great Red Zone defense (46.81%) is going to be key to which team wins the game. Calling Akeem Dent, Sean Weatherspoon and Jonathan Babineaux. Flip it around and the Falcons hot Red Zone scoring faces the 49ers terrible Red Zone defense. "Yes, terrible" 49ers allow opponents to score on 61.54% of trips to the Red Zone and Falcons score at a 59.09% clip in the Red.


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Thursday, January 17, 2013

NFL Playoffs Proved next Generation is Ready!

Recapping the NFL Divisional playoffs where every game felt like a Super Bowl or Conference championship. Denver Broncos meeting with the Baltimore Ravens was a double overtime thriller. Seattle Seahawks visit to Atlanta to face the Falcons almost ended in the biggest comeback in playoff history as the Falcons pulled out what could be franchise defining victory with a last second field goal and end zone interception by "Julio Jones". New England  Patriots defeated Houston Texans 41-28 with Houston scoring 15pts in an attempted comeback in the 4th quarter. In San Francisco the 49ers Colin Kaepernick turned in his best performance of the season rushing for a QB record 181 yards, 2 TD's and passed for 253yds and 2 TD's.

So what did the divisional playoffs show us?
1.) Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson appears to be the future of the NFC.
2.) Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are turning into elite quarterbacks ready to take the next step.
3.) Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers still have gas in the tank how much gas is the question?
4.) Offense is starting to exceed defense as 6 out of 8 teams in the divisional playoffs scored over 30pts.
5.) Tom Brady is still the best quarterback in the NFL 344yds 3td's against a good Texans secondary.

Milestones Achieved.
1.) It has to feel great for Tony Gonzalez to finally win a playoff game after 15yrs in the NFL.
2.) Atlanta Falcons Rise Up! at the Georgia Dome as Matt Ryan records his first playoff victory.
3.) Russell Wilson recorded his first 300yd game with 385yds passing.
4.) Colin Kaepernick sets QB playoff record with 181yds rushing


Divisional playoffs proved that after Ray Lewis, Tony Gonzalez, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady exits the NFL after the season or the next three years the NFL will continue to have a bright future. Names such as Flacco, Ryan, Rodgers, Wilson, and Kaepernick will carry the torch of the National Football League along with Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. The offseason of 2013 will be a passing of the torch and the NFL playoffs are proving that the next generation is ready!!!


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Friday, January 11, 2013

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend

Last week I covered the NFL Wild Card weekend going 4 for 4 and bringing up several scenarios that would forever be sketched in the minds of fans and NFL writers. Pointing to the emotional ride in Baltimore of Ray Lewis's last game to the ultimate physical destruction of Robert Griffin III in Washington D.C. Twitter follower @TheEsquireof212 in New York asked which NFL teams would cover the lines. Suggestion Seattle Seahawks -3 over the Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens - 7 against the Indianapolis Colts that turned out great right Michael?

Now we enter the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs great story lines are endless this weekend as  Ray Lewis brings leads the Ravens into Mile High (great name for a stadium especially in Denver) to square off with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. The offensive minded Green Bay Packers will try to strike a match at Candlestick Park against the feared defense of the San Francisco 49ers. While the Houston Texans look to revenge a 42-14 loss on December 10th to the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Last but not least Rookie of the Year candidate Russell Wilson brings the spirit of the Seattle Seahawks 12thMan over 3,000 miles into the Georgia Dome facing high explosive offense of Matt Ryan's Atlanta Falcons.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Jan 12th 4:30 pm EST (CBS)

Coming into Denver the Baltimore Ravens are playing for their leader and head General Ray Lewis and a chance at the AFC Championship. While the Denver Broncos offense and defense are playing at an elite level. Most sports writers are going to gloat over seeing the Ravens defense face off against Peyton Manning's Broncos offense but the real story is the Denver Broncos third rated defense. The same defense that carried Tim Tebow and his anemic offense to the AFC Divisional playoffs last season. They say Ray Lewis, I say Von Miller, they say Ed Reed I say Champ Bailey, they say Ravens defense I say Broncos defense. I am sure you get the point Peyton Manning is playing with the third best defense in the NFL best defense in the AFC. Broncos offense has scored over 30pts eleven times this season. During the regular season the Ravens have given up 23pts eight times losing six out of eight.

Prediction: Broncos score over 23pts and Willis McGahee will be available for the AFC Championship.

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Jan 12th 8:00 pm EST (FOX)

Perfect NFL classic match up 49ers and Packers at Candlestick doesn't get any better than seeing two historic franchises do battle in the playoffs. We can sit here and count championships on both sides but none of this matters on Saturday when Aaron Rodgers squares off against the vaulted 49ers defense and a healthy Justin Smith returning from injury. While the 49ers will enjoy home field advantage on Saturday, Rodgers is no stranger to playoff games on the road winner of three road playoff games and two road victories away from the all time record for Quarterbacks. Still the Packers offensive line has been a house of horrors plainly said "the Packers offensive line is terrible". Rodgers was sacked an NFL high 51 times during the regular season. Aldon Smith and the 49ers defensive front seven will be ready and well prepared to manhandle the Packers up front. Yes, Kaepernick is young his never played in the postseason "blah, blah" but he will be in front of 70,000 of his closes friends at the Stick.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers will keep the defense hunting all day forcing Aaron Rodgers to launch awkward and untimely passes down the field  while the "Smith Brothers" will be eager to clean house.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons Jan 13th 1:00pm EST (FOX)


Game of the week two perfectly good teams with contrasting styles squaring off at the Georgia Dome. Atlanta Falcons are a very finesse pass first team with multiple weapons controlled by one of the great young QB's in the NFL Matt Ryan. Seattle Seahawks are a brutal run heavy offense led by Rookie of the year candidate Russell Wilson and Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch. Falcons defense is very opportunistic with a ball hawking secondary with a very vanilla type NFL front. Seahawks are big up front, fast in the middle and HUGE in the secondary built on power and speed they posses the number one scoring defense in the NFL. Unfortunately many take this view of comparing offense against offense and defense versus defense this is the wrong approach. This is not Matt Ryan versus Russell Wilson, this is Ryan versus Sherman, Browner and the Legion of Boom. Tony Gonzalez and Jacquizz Rogers play will be the best measure of Falcons success in the NFC Divisional playoffs. Seahawks young linebackers KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner must challenge Gonzalez. On the other end Falcons must attack Marshawn Lynch and wrap up at the point of contact while keeping Russell Wilson in the pocket.

Prediction: One of the best playoff games in recent memory Matt Ryan will have the ball for the last drive seeking a game winning career defining touchdown against the leagues best defense... keyword "seeking"

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Jan 13th 4:30pm EST (CBS)


Based on the 42-14 thumping the Patriots handed the Texans in week 14 at Gillette Stadium many are predicting another double digit blowout. Silly Rabbits Trix are for Kids, Texans and Patriots match up really well despite the week 14 debacle Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster are real top 5 players at their positions. Texans defense is very underrated but can they handle Tom Brady?
Facts: Brady is (16-6) in the NFL playoffs a win over the Texans moves Brady over Joe Montana on the all time win list for QB's.Brady undefeated in the playoffs when attempting over 30 passes in a playoff game. Patriots running back Stevan Ridley finished the season with 1,230 rushing yards. Gronkowski is finally healthy. Last main point Brady has finally found chemistry with Brandon Lloyd and the Patriots 2013 team might be better than 2012.

Prediction: Texans will not lose 42-14 expect a closer match up on Sunday still Patriots offense is too much for the Texans to keep up shoot out???


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Saturday, January 5, 2013

NFL Wild Card Weekend Ready to Rumble!!!

              The NFL playoffs where legends are born and memories are made to last forever. This season we have the usual Super Bowl type suspects Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers joined by the youngsters RGIII, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck. Baltimore Ravens Ray Lewis will be playing possibly his last game in Baltimore versus the Indianapolis Colts. Andy Dalton and AJ Green's Cincinnati Bengals have a 2012 divisional round rematch with the Houston Texans. Last but not least Adrian Peterson the greatest running back on the planet faces NFC North divisional rival Green Bay Packers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Divisional Wild Card round 2013 has all the makings of an unforgettable weekend of NFL football. Time to put the hard hat on and Cleo up with our NFL Wild Card predictions.


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans Jan 5th 4:30 pm EST (NBC)

Bengals are on a roll winners of three straight with key wins over Ravens and Steelers to finish the regular season. Last season Andy Dalton and A.J. Green were rookies tasting NFL postseason pressure for the first time. Now that young Bengals have grown some mane lately they are seeking revenge against the Texans. Houston (12-4) enter the playoffs losers of 3 out of 4 regular season games to end the season. Schaub and company are favorites to win at home but a glaring stat reveals the Texans as frauds in BIG games. All four loses are against playoff teams Packers, Patriots, Colts and Vikings. Bengals have a clear shot in this match-up but can they slow the Texans offense?

Prediction: (Houston Texans) Last seasons wild card game was over before it started. This time the Bengals won't fold so easily but the addition of Matt Schaub combined with Arian Foster will have the offense rolling in the 4th Qtr...


Minnesota Viking vs. Green Bay Packers Jan 5th 8:00pm EST (NBC)  

Vikings will travel to face NFC North division rival Green Bay Packers and will be relying heavily on the shoulders, back and knees of Adrian Peterson. In two games this season Peterson has rushed for 409 yards and  2 TD against the Packers. Packers have lost four out of the last six playoff games at Lambeau Field and this time the tundra will be frozen with -10 degree wind chill temps. Aaron Rodgers threw for 365 yards and 4 TD's in week 17 match-up against the Vikings. Packers have won 7 straight home games and nothing makes me think the streak will change.

Prediction: (Packers) Simply have more offensive weapons and week 17 proved this could turn into a shootout. Still have weather concerns as it will be bitter cold forcing Packers to think twice when Vikings pound the football with Peterson. After pondering over the facts there is simply nothing to ponder about after all Packers move onto San Francisco and warmer weather in the next round.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Jan 6th 1:00pm EST (CBS)

Andrew Luck will be the first of three rookie QB's to take the field on Sunday. Colts have been surprising this season Reggie Wayne and Luck have developed a good chemistry allowing the rookie to flourish. Issues still exist with Colts as the defense has allowed 24.2 points per game and the offense has only mustered 22.3 per contest. Teams that allow more points then they can score generally don't make the playoffs and the Colts have been lucky this season. Luck has tossed 18 int's and the Ravens will be hungry to perform as Ray Lewis plays what is reportedly his last game in the NFL. Expect Ray Rice to touch the ball more in this contest as the Ravens ground and pound offense takes flight against the 29th rush defense and Flacco finds open receivers Boldin, Rice and Pitta versus the 21st ranked pass defense.

Prediction: (Ravens) The emotion will be high and the pressure will be fierce Ray Lewis and company will attack the Colts offense all afternoon. No disappointments or upsets here.... hail to #52


Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Redskins Jan 6th 4:30pm EST (FOX)

Seahawks travel to the Nations Capital Washington D.C. to face off against the Washington Redskins in what could end up as first cross country rival between Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. Both rookie signal callers have been excellent this season poise in the pocket and not afraid to mix it up on offense. Two mobile QB's taking the future of the NFL to new levels. Combined RGIII and RW3 have produced 46 TD's and 18 int's. Clearly the two best rookies in the NFL both rely on tough hard nose running backs Redskins Alfred Morris (1613 yds)and Seahawks Marshawn Lynch (1590 yds) ranking 2nd and 3rd among running backs in yards from scrimmage this season. While there are tons of offensive similarities for both teams, the comparisons end on defense where the Seahawks are #1 in the NFL allowing 15.3 pts per game. Brandon Browner returns from suspension and Richard Sherman won his appeal and Seattle's Legion of Boom secondary is the best in the NFL. Winner gets OROY?

Prediction:  (Seahawks) Early week reports mentioned that RGIII was looking to shed the knee brace for the playoffs but he is still hobbled and the latest news has him wearing a knee brace on Sunday. RGIII will need to be 100% in order to beat the #1 defense in the NFL as the Seahawks posses both speed and power on defense.


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